BWB — Business With Brian · February 2025
BWB — Business With Brian · 2025年2月

Ranked #1: My Top Stock Picks for 2026

排名第一:2026年最佳股票精选

Seven stocks across AI networking, data centers, defense drones, quantum computing, GPUs, semiconductor equipment, and cloud. Each picked for one metric that matters most. From $8.5M to $51B in quarterly revenue — the range tells you this isn't one theme.

七只股票覆盖AI网络、数据中心、国防无人机、量子计算、GPU、半导体设备和云。每只选自一个最重要的指标。从850万到510亿美元季度营收——范围说明这不是单一主题。

7 7 Stock picks 股票精选
1–49% 1-49% Analyst upside range 分析师上行范围
#1 #1 Ranked in 2025 comparison 2025年对比排名第一

All 7 Picks — At a Glance

全部7只——概览

Ticker
代码
Sector
行业
Analyst Upside
分析师上行
ANET
ANET
AI Networking
AI网络
36%
36%
APLD
APLD
AI Data Centers
AI数据中心
37%
37%
AVAV
AVAV
Defense Drones
国防无人机
1% (wait for dip)
1%(等回调)
IONQ
IONQ
Quantum Computing
量子计算
49%
49%
NVDA
NVDA
AI Platform / GPUs
AI平台/GPU
44%
44%
LRCX
LRCX
Semiconductor Equipment
半导体设备
TBD (buy on dips)
待定(回调买入)
AMZN
AMZN
Cloud / E-Commerce
云/电商
24%
24%
AMD
AMD
Semiconductors
半导体
27%
27%

All 7 Picks — Deep Dive

全部7只——深入

ANET · 36% upside
ANET · 36%上行

Arista Networks — The Networking Bottleneck

Arista Networks——网络瓶颈

Builds high-speed networking fabric inside cloud and AI data centers. Revenue $2.3B (2020) → est. $8.5B (2025), ~4× in 5 years, ~30% CAGR. Net margins 27% → 42%+. FCF margins 50%+, CapEx under 1% of revenue, $10B+ cumulative FCF. $9.5B cash vs $60M debt. As AI clusters scale, networking becomes the bottleneck, not compute. Key metric: revenue growth in mid-20% range = hyperscaler spending intact.

构建云和AI数据中心内部高速网络结构。营收$2.3B(2020)→预估$8.5B(2025),5年约4倍,~30% CAGR。净利润率27%→42%+。FCF利润率50%+,CapEx低于营收1%,累计FCF 100亿美元+。现金95亿美元 vs 债务6000万。AI集群扩展时,网络成瓶颈而非算力。关键指标:营收增长保持20%+区间=超大规模支出完好。

APLD · 37% upside
APLD · 37%上行

Applied Digital — AI Data Center Buildout

Applied Digital——AI数据中心建设

Builds large-scale AI data centers around compute density and power cost. Revenue $8.5M (FY2022) → $215M (FY2025), 194% CAGR — 7× faster than broader AI DC market. Builds in power-rich regions (North Dakota), locks low-cost kWh into 10–15-year leases. Ellendale campus online Q4, adding ~$50M/quarter initially. Targeting 45%+ gross margins once fully leased. Key metric: MW placed into service — ~$200M annualized revenue per 100MW.

围绕算力密度和电力成本建设大规模AI数据中心。营收$8.5M(FY2022)→$215M(FY2025),194% CAGR——比AI DC市场快7倍。在电力丰富地区(北达科他)建设,锁定低成本千瓦时10-15年租约。Ellendale园区Q4上线,初期增~$5000万/季。目标45%+毛利率(满租后)。关键指标:投运MW——每100MW约$2亿年化营收。

AVAV · Wait for dip
AVAV · 等回调

AeroVironment — Defense Drone Platform

AeroVironment——国防无人机平台

Moved from niche drone supplier to broader defense tech platform. $4.1B BlueHalo acquisition tripled revenue, added lasers, space systems, counter-UAS. Switchblade production 6× in ~1 year, capacity for thousands annually. Funded backlog $400M → $750M+, total bookings >$1B. Long-dated Army/Air Force contracts extend visibility into next decade. Gross margin collapse to high teens = acquisition accounting, not demand problem. Key metric: gross margin recovery to mid-20% = integration progressing.

从利基无人机供应商变为更广泛的国防科技平台。41亿美元BlueHalo收购使营收三倍,增加激光、太空系统、反无人机。Switchblade产量约1年6倍,年产数千台能力。已签约积压$4亿→$7.5亿+,总预订超10亿。长期陆军/空军合同延续至下个十年。毛利率暴跌至高十位数=收购会计,非需求问题。关键指标:毛利率恢复至20%+中段=整合推进中。

IONQ · 49% upside
IONQ · 49%上行

IonQ — From Research Story to Operating Business

IonQ——从研究故事到运营业务

Quarterly revenue low teens → ~$40M in Q3 2025 — almost all of 2024 in a single quarter. Gross margins below 10% by design — selling systems at near cost to get embedded early. Two-qubit gate fidelity at 99.99% — fewer physical qubits needed for useful work. Stock ran $8 → mid-$80s in 2025, pulled back ~40% to ~$50 — consolidation after repricing. Key metric: revenue trajectory step-ups = turning quantum into a real platform business.

季度营收低十数百万→2025Q3约$4000万——一个季度接近2024全年。毛利率低于10%是刻意为之——以近成本价出售系统提前嵌入。双量子比特门保真度99.99%——更少物理量子比特即可做有用工作。股价2025年从$8→80多美元,回调约40%至~$50——重新定价后盘整。关键指标:营收阶梯式增长=量子变成真正的平台业务。

NVDA · 44% upside
NVDA · 44%上行

Nvidia — The Platform Underneath All Compute

英伟达——所有算力之下的平台

Data center revenue $51B in Q3 FY26, up 66% YoY, now 90% of total. Vera Rubia platform: 5× inference, 3.5× training, tokens at 1/10 cost. Compute scales three ways: training + post-training + inference. Nvidia AI Enterprise at $2B+ annual pace, triple-digit growth. Most global computing infrastructure hasn't transitioned to accelerated compute yet. Key metric: data center revenue growth = confirms Nvidia's role at center of compute transition.

数据中心营收FY26Q3达$510亿,同比涨66%,占总营收90%。Vera Rubia平台:5倍推理、3.5倍训练、token成本1/10。算力三种扩展:训练+后训练+推理。英伟达AI企业年化20亿美元+,三位数增长。全球大部分计算基础设施尚未转向加速计算。关键指标:数据中心营收增长=确认英伟达在算力转型中的核心地位。

LRCX · Buy on dips
LRCX · 回调买入

Lam Research — Etch & Deposition Moat

Lam Research——蚀刻与沉积护城河

Applies etch and deposition tools that make advanced logic and memory possible. Revenue $1.6B (FY2006) → $18.4B (FY2025) — 11×, roughly double semiconductor market growth. Operating margins mid-20s → 32%, net margins 29%. HBM requires 2–3× more etch steps per wafer — new demand vector growing 50%+ annually. FCF $5.7B at 31% margin, returning 80% to shareholders. Drawdowns improved from -56% (GFC) to -15% (recent normalization). Key metric: operating margin expanding faster than revenue = operating leverage intact.

提供蚀刻和沉积工具使先进逻辑和内存成为可能。营收$1.6B(FY2006)→$18.4B(FY2025)——11倍,约为半导体市场增速2倍。运营利润率20%+中段→32%,净利率29%。HBM每晶圆需2-3倍更多蚀刻步骤——年增50%+的新需求向量。FCF $57亿利润率31%,80%回馈股东。回撤从-56%(GFC)改善至-15%。关键指标:运营利润率扩展快于营收=运营杠杆完好。

AMZN · 24% upside
AMZN · 24%上行

Amazon — The Breakout Pattern

Amazon——突破模式

Amazon surges ahead, then goes sideways for years while business catches up. Since 2023: up 15–20% while S&P 500 up 45–50%. Two years of underperformance right on pattern. AWS growth accelerating back toward 20%. Operating income $12B (2022) → $69B (2024) — 5× in 2 years. FCF swung from negative to $30B+. Buildout funded by profits, not balance sheet stress. Stock compressed near highs, momentum constructive but not overheated. Key metric: returns as DC capacity fills = breakout signal.

Amazon先飙升再横盘数年等业务赶上。2023年以来:涨15-20%而标普涨45-50%。两年的跑输正合模式。AWS增速回到20%。运营利润$120亿(2022)→$690亿(2024)——2年5倍。FCF从负转$300亿+。扩建由利润而非负债表压力资助。股价在高位盘整,动量建设性但未过热。关键指标:DC容量填充时回报=突破信号。

AMD · 27% upside
AMD · 27%上行

AMD — PEG 0.47 Says Growth Is Discounted

AMD——PEG 0.47说明增长被低估

Revenue $10B (2020) → $34B (2025) — 3× in 5 years. PEG ratio 0.47 — below 0.5 means market is heavily discounting growth even though earnings say otherwise. Data center revenue 60%+ YoY, now most important profit driver. $3B/yr non-cash amortization from Xilinx depresses GAAP earnings but not cash (FCF $2.4B, sharply up). Moving from chips to rack-scale AI systems — revenue per deployment rises without needing explosive unit growth. Key metric: PEG ratio staying this low = market betting growth won't last, even though it already is.

营收$100亿(2020)→$340亿(2025)——5年3倍。PEG比率0.47——低于0.5意味着市场严重低估增长即使盈利说相反。数据中心营收同比60%+,现在是最重要利润驱动。Xilinx每年30亿美元非现金摊销压低GAAP盈利但不影响现金流(FCF $24亿,大幅上升)。从芯片转向整机架AI系统——每次部署营收上升无需爆发性单位增长。关键指标:PEG如此低=市场赌增长持续不了,但增长已经在持续。

The Single Metric That Matters Most

最重要的单一指标

Ticker
代码
Metric
指标
Why It Matters
为何重要
ANET
ANET
Revenue growth
营收增长
Mid-20% range = hyperscaler spending intact
20%+中段=超大规模支出完好
APLD
APLD
MW placed in service
投运兆瓦
~$200M annualized per 100MW at incremental margins
每100MW约$2亿年化边际利润
AVAV
AVAV
Gross margin recovery
毛利率恢复
High teens → mid-20% = acquisition integration working
高十位→20%+中段=收购整合生效
IONQ
IONQ
Revenue trajectory
营收轨迹
Step-ups confirm quantum becoming real platform business
阶梯式增长确认量子成为真正平台业务
NVDA
NVDA
DC revenue growth
DC营收增长
Strong = confirms center of compute transition
强=确认算力转型中心地位
LRCX
LRCX
Operating margin
运营利润率
Expanding faster than revenue = operating leverage intact
扩展快于营收=运营杠杆完好
AMZN
AMZN
DC capacity fill rate
DC容量填充率
Returns hold = Amazon exits another holding pattern
回报保持=Amazon退出又一段盘整
AMD
AMD
PEG ratio
PEG比率
Staying below 0.5 = market betting growth won't last, but it already is
保持低于0.5=市场赌增长持续不了,但已在持续